Thursday, February 08, 2007

Here it is, nearly two years before the next general election, and we already have more candidates for president than there are voters. Furthermore, Maine seems to be developing a huge supply of congressional contestants nearly a full year before such maneuvering traditionally gets under way.

What's going on here, anyway?

Call it the avalanche effect. First District Rep. Tom Allen, a Democrat, has made it pretty clear he plans to challenge Republican Sen. Susan Collins in her re-election bid next year, and this has triggered a rush of potential candidates in both parties for Allen's seat.

Exploratory committees akimbo, a slew of former state senators has stepped forward, including two-term Senate President Mark Lawrence of Kittery and two former Senate majority leaders, Michael Brennan of Portland and Chellie Pingree of North Haven, all Democrats.

Republicans on the list include former state senators Peter Cianchette of South Portland, Charles Summers of Scarborough and Phil Harriman of Yarmouth, as well as former state Rep. Darlene Curley of Scarborough who ran against Allen the last time out and got squashed by a 2-1 margin.

The Associated Press recently identified 14 possible entries in the 1st District race next year. The list almost certainly will grow as the year wears on. Nobody has really announced yet, at least not officially, although Collins -- the key player in all this -- has made it plain she will run for a third term, earlier assurances to the contrary notwithstanding. She turns out to be one of those lip-service term limits advocates who doesn't want voters to read her lips anymore.

You remember term limits, the idea that legally mandated turnover in public office is healthy if not altogether democratic. Maine voters imposed limits on state legislative service several years ago and we've debated the merits and drawbacks ever since.

Maine also approved a referendum establishing term limits for members of Congress, but that one was ruled unconstitutional.

These days, candidates generally dance around the issue, either by arguing that the best form of term limits is the election process itself or by embracing self- imposed term limits, pledging in advance to serve only a specific period of time in office and then retire.

Collins is in the latter category, although she was never very forceful about it. She initially revealed plans to serve no more than two terms during a 1996 candidates forum in Sanford when she first ran for the Senate. She reiterated this stance in a letter to a Portland constituent in the fall of 2002 just before getting re-elected to her second (presumably final) six-year term. By October of last year, she had a change of heart, telling editorial board members of the Lewiston Sun-Journal she planned to run again in 2008 after all.

Collins explained her epiphany this way: "I've found that I really underestimated the importance of seniority and how much difference it makes when you are a more senior member."

Put another way, the more power you get in political office, the more attractive you find the idea of holding onto it.

But none of this is likely to affect Collins' re-election chances appreciably. Maine voters usually demand a fairly compelling reason for removing an incumbent from office and her modest little flip-flop on this issue hardly qualifies. In fact, it may only shore up her reputation for independent pragmatism, probably her most attractive quality.

All of which serves to buttress the feeling within Maine's political community that Allen will be making a big mistake if he runs against Collins next year, that he will be sacrificing a safe seat in a Congress newly dominated by Democrats for a probably hopeless shot at the Senate.

True, while it is rare for a member of Congress to knock off a Senate incumbent running for re-election, there is some recent historical precedent for it.

In 1972, 2nd District Rep. William D. Hathaway, a Democrat, astonished everyone by defeating the venerable Sen. Margaret Chase Smith against all odds. Six years later, Hathaway himself was ousted by 2nd District Rep. William S. Cohen.

But the conditions in those two races were radically different from those involved in a Collins-Allen matchup.

I referred above to Collins as the key player in this drama, but actually it is Allen who serves that role.

He still has time to call off the avalanche. My guess is he won't.

Jim Brunelle is a weekly columnist and has been commenting on Maine issues for more than 40 years. He lives in Cape Elizabeth and can be reached at jbrune@maine.rr.com.