Ready for re-election Mainers need good reasons to get rid of incumbents

Thursday, March 24, 2005

It is hard to believe it has been less than five months since the last election. We are all deeply into speculation about the next one, 19 months from now.

We are never very far away from campaign season in this country. And if that bores, annoys or otherwise pains you, consider this: There are a lot of political wonks who believe the top races in the 2006 Maine elections are already settled. They are already looking to 2008 and 2010 for their speculative kicks.

There is nothing new about this. People who are interested in the minutiae of politics are like chess fans; they like to try always to see several moves ahead.

William Pattangall, who satirized Maine politics a century ago, once penned this scene in which his fictitious plow salesman, Stephen A. Douglas Smith, interviews a political boss named Wescott:

" 'Who is going to be governor, Mr. Wescott?' I asked him when we had got comfortably seated.

" 'When?' says he.

" 'Next time,' says I.

" 'Jo Manley,' he answered promptly and then he took out some papers and he says: '1905 to 1907, Manley; 1907 to 1911, Charles Prescott; 1911 to 1915, William T. Cobb; 1915 to 1919, Seth Larrabee. ...' "

Back then political bosses dominated elections. These days, the system is guided more by the weaknesses of political party organizations, which fail to develop strong opposition candidates between balloting.

That failure leads to the strength of incumbency. Thus, more than a year and a half away from the next elections, U.S. Sen. Olympia J. Snowe's previously announced candidacy for re-election pretty much settles things in the minds of most wonks.

There is somewhat less certainty when it comes to Gov. John E. Baldacci, but he is still to be considered tough to beat, even though he won with only a minority 47 percent of the votes the last time around.

He could still be defeated by issues, but partisan opposition at this point does not seem to be shaping up as a major threat to his incumbency. The Republicans fielded businessman and former state legislator Peter Cianchette last time and that is the name that keeps popping up as Baldacci's most likely challenger next time. So what else is new?

As for Snowe, she seems golden at this point, despite the fact that she is seriously disliked within the right wing of her own party and open to challenge by a serious candidate on the other side, if only the Democrats could find one.

Snowe's popularity with Maine voters in general stems from the fact that she has built a reputation for moderation and independence in the tradition of other re-electable Republican members of the Maine congressional delegation, from Margaret Chase Smith to William S. Cohen.

Ironically, those are the very qualities that put her in bad odor with ultraconservative elements in the state. They consider her a traitor for frequently departing from the Bush administration on a range of issues from Social Security privatization to oil drilling in Alaska. There is always a lot of grumbling about the need for a true loyalist to challenge Snowe directly in a GOP primary, but nothing ever comes of it, because mainstream Republicans -- still the rank-and-file majority of party members -- are fully in tune with Snowe's approach.

Meanwhile, the right wing cannot seem to come up with potential challengers who are not wild-eyed zealots, ideological flame-throwers or just plain embarrassments. Snowe may actually benefit politically by attacks from this crowd.

As for the Democrats, speculation has settled on 1st District Rep. Thomas H. Allen and state Attorney General G. Steven Rowe, neither of whom has closed the door on running for the Senate in 2006.

That is OK. Politicians ought not to close doors prematurely, even if in their own minds there is little chance they will walk through and confront the dangers and uncertainties on the other side.

In all likelihood, Snowe would trounce either of these candidates. She tends to win elections by convincing margins of 2-to-1 or better.

Allen, a levelheaded politician with a safe seat in Congress, is not likely to give that up for the privilege of serving as a sacrificial lamb for his party. Rowe, a former House speaker, might be willing, but he risks joining a former Senate president on the growing roster of forgotten Snowe trouncees. (She beat Mark W. Lawrence 69 percent to 31 percent in 2000).

In Maine, officeholders generally have to give voters a good reason to be thrown out of office. So far, Snowe does not seem to have provided one.

Jim Brunelle of Cape Elizabeth has commented on Maine issues for more than 35 years. He can be reached at jbrune@maine.rr.com.