Observers: Loss by TABOR showing trust
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BY TOM BELL Kennebec Journal & Morning Sentinel 11/05/2009

BY TOM BELL

Portland Press Herald

People rarely have nice things to say about politicians. But Tuesday's lopsided defeat of Question 4 revealed that the vast majority of Maine voters trust their elected officials, political observers said Wednesday.

Voters rejected the so-called Taxpayer Bill of Rights 60 percent to 40 percent. It was the third time in five years that Maine voters rejected a proposed tax-and-spending cap.

Despite widespread frustration with Maine's tax burden, voters appear skeptical of formula-based tax and spending caps like those in some large states, such as Colorado and California, said Ron Schmidt, an associate professor of political science at the University of Southern Maine.

In Maine, where most communities have a town meeting form of government and constituents have easy access to their representatives in the Legislature, people are less alienated from government than they are in larger states, he said.

Question 4 would have imposed spending limits on the state and local governments by using a formula based on population and inflation.

At the local level, the cap would have been based on average personal income growth and forecast inflation.

At the state and local levels, voters' approval would have been required to exceed spending limits or raise taxes.

Kevin Raye, the Republican leader in the state Senate, said Mainers are less trustful of state government than they are of local government. He said people would have been more receptive of TABOR if it had applied only to state government.

Raye, who lives in Perry in Washington County, said many of the county's residents are engaged in town affairs and don't want to lose that. In the last days of the campaign, he said, support for the ballot measure began to slip as people expressed concerns that it would reduce local control.

The defeat of TABOR was a vote of confidence in the republican form of government, as opposed to the direct-democracy of the ballot box, said Patrick Murphy, a political pollster.

Mainers trust their elected representatives to handle budget matters and don't want "non-stop local referendums," he said.

People like to complain about elected officials, he said, "but they like all the levels of government we have, and they don't want to do anything to hurt their level of local representation."

Legislators shouldn't see TABOR's defeat as a sign that voters are willing to have their taxes raised to prevent more state budget cuts, said Sen. Bill Diamond, D-Windham, co-chair of the Appropriations Committee.

Rather, in defeating TABOR, voters were acknowledging that lawmakers have done a good job balancing the budget without tax increases, he said, and they will expect that to continue.

"They realize we are making cuts. They recognize what we are up against," he said. "There is a level of trust that we are doing our best."

Gov. John Baldacci agreed that TABOR's defeat doesn't signal the public's willingness to pay more taxes. Rather, voters expect officials to make hard decisions without the constrains of a formula-driven spending cap, he said.

"What they are saying is, it's important that we have good quality services, education, public safety, fire and police," he said. "It's also important to make sure that you're not doing it by formula but you're doing it with thought and careful consideration."

TABOR's wide margin of defeat means the out-of-state anti-tax groups that bankrolled the signature drive that put the question on the ballot will now view Maine as a bad investment for similar initiatives, Schmidt said.

In 2004, Maine voters rejected a proposal that would have capped property taxes. In 2006, they rejected a spending cap that was almost identical to the one on Tuesday's ballot.

Many people are irritated that the issue keeps appearing on the ballot, and opponents will have an even easier time tapping into that frustration if TABOR ever returns, said Sandy Maisel, a professor of government at Colby College.

"People got sick of it," he said.

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