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KENNEBEC COMMUTER: What does 2009 hold for gas prices?
BY MEGHAN V. MALLOY
Staff Writer
Kennebec Journal & Morning Sentinel 12/29/2008

If nothing else, 2008 was a year for record breaking and historic firsts.

Michael Phelps set the new standard in athletics by earning the most gold medals of any Olympian in history. Barack Obama became the first black man in the U.S. to attain the highest office in the land.

Yep, 2008 was a historic year, all right. It was also historic in the opinion of a transportation geek (the geek being yours truly): It was the year that gas prices set a new high as well as a new low throughout the U.S.

Starting in late winter and continuing into summer, the price of gasoline in the U.S. started to rapidly increase, first shattering through the $3 range, then $3.50, then $4. At the height of summer, gasoline in this country cost, on average, $4.11 per gallon.

Then gas prices hit another record. As quickly as the numbers soared, they plummeted. In fact, the cost for a gallon of regular gasoline fell under $2 for the first time in years. All of this happened within the span of eight or nine months.

Makes one wonder: What does 2009 hold for the American driver?

It's a loaded question, to be sure. We are in what economic insiders say is the worst recession since Franklin Roosevelt penned the New Deal. Our government leaders are flinging piles of money at the auto industry just like girls used to fling their undergarments at Tom Jones. And while drivers are reveling in low gas prices now, those prices are the result of a collapsing global economy. Happy New Year.

Let's deal with one thing at a time: gas prices. The price of a gallon of gasoline now is falling much more slowly than it did during September and October. A few weeks ago, the Kennebec Commuter posed the question to readers: Is the "gas crash" over?

The collective answer from energy experts and economists is "yes." And if the crash isn't over right now, others feel, it's well on the way to ending.

Dr. Jonathon Rubin, an economist and professor at the University of Maine in Orono, said it is difficult to pinpoint what will happen to gas prices in a roller-coaster economy.

"It's likely," Rubin said, of the price crash skidding to a halt, "the prices reflect the weakness in the economy, and not just here but around the world. My personal opinion is that we'll see prices like (what we have now) for the next several months and then they'll go up again."

How much those prices go up, Rubin said, is anyone's guess, including his own.

"There are too many unknowns," Rubin cautioned. "We have to ask ourselves several things, including, 'How quickly can China's economy expand?' 'How quickly can our country convert to using alternative energy methods?' "

As for the auto industry, the news doesn't sound any better. The Toledo Blade, a newspaper in Ohio, went so far as to ask the question: "Will there even be a domestic auto industry in 2009?"

It's a fair question. The $17.4 billion the government loaned to Chrysler and General Motors is supposed to last until March 31, 2009, with the understanding those companies will get it together ASAP. This may or may not mean Chrysler will have to throw in the proverbial towel and merge with someone who has a little more viability. Even Ford, considered the most stable of the Big Three, is experiencing sliding sales.

But let's not get too down on ourselves. After all, people will still buy vehicles next year, and the Big Three are not necessarily a lost cause. In fact, Ford has announced that it will not need bailout help, that it can remain stable until the economy bounces back, which is good news not only for those who work for Ford, but for customers eyeing a 2009 model.

Follow Meghan Malloy's commuter blog and track the cheapest gasoline prices in town daily at www.kjonline.com.

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