BRUNSWICK -- Jim Bodwell's car dealership has seen its share of ups and downs since his father opened it in 1955, but the double whammy of a recession and the imminent departure of the Navy from the Brunswick Naval Air Station is shaping up to be an unprecedented challenge.

"It's like we're getting a lot of bad news in one year," said Bodwell, after handing out payroll checks to employees last week. "We're just going to hang on and see what happens."

The closing of the base begins to become a reality this month, as the first of its four P-3 squadrons starts to leave the day after Thanksgiving, never to return. The departure of base personnel and their $200 million annual economic impact will be staggered over the next two years, but it is being met with a degree of foreboding by retailers and others who may be struggling.

"I suspect after Christmas comes, based on the calls I've had, there are going to be a lot of closings," said John Gerard, a commercial real estate broker and former president of the local Chamber of Commerce, who serves on the Brunswick Downtown Association's board.

Big-box stores that have located in the Brunswick-Topsham area are able to absorb slow sales if they know the market will rebound eventually, but small businesses often don't have that luxury.

The area will be losing a large percentage of its customers, he said. "That's probably 100 percent of the profit for a lot of small businesses who are just hanging on as it is."

Gerard says he believes the community has done an admirable job of planning for the reuse of the base, but there has been little help in identifying the short-term impact on everything from delinquent tax collections to the housing market, and no aid for businesses to help them weather the downturn.

"There's no doubt in my mind we're going to be taking a bigger hit in this community than we could have," he said. "There are going to be people who lose their homes, lose their business, everything they own."

Bambi Libby, who runs HeadQuarters Styling Salon, said 10 percent of her business is base personnel. "When we get a base person in here, it means a whole family."

The Bath Road salon draws a lot of base traffic, she said. She opened a year ago, and figures her shop can survive the closing.

"We started this business at a bad time, and hopefully it never gets as hard as it was the first year," she said.

People still do get their hair cut during a recession, she said, but they are more likely to pass on luxuries like manicures and pedicures.

"It's the whole domino effect, and the economy is so bad now," she said.

Ripple effect

The loss of base personnel will show up in some unexpected places. Jeff Jordan, assistant director of the Midcoast Regional Redevelopment Authority, which is planning for the reuse of the 3,200-acre base, said he spoke before a group of dentists, and one was lamenting that 20 percent of his patients were base personnel who would be leaving.

"The average paper mill is like 500 people. This is like 10 mills closing," Jordan said. "The difference is we've had more than two weeks' notice."

Almost none of Slocum Chiropractic Office's patients are from the base, but employee Becky Dyer says she is concerned nevertheless. "If other people are affected, it affects us," she said.

People who are seeing less money in their own family budgets are less likely to spend $25 to $30 on a co-pay for a treatment, she said.

The 400-person squadron that leaves after Thanksgiving will be deployed overseas for six months then head to its new home in Jacksonville, Fla.

Succeeding squadrons will leave over the next 10 months, and then the base's civilian personnel will begin to relocate. The runways will be shut down in the first quarter of 2010, said base spokesman John James.

The base employs 2,687 active-duty personnel and 583 full-time civilian personnel. All of them will be gone by 2010. Base redevelopment officials say that including dependents, the base closing will represent a loss of about 5,000 people from the midcoast area.

The impact of the first squadron's departure will be mitigated to an extent. About 60 percent of the squadron members are single and have already packed their belongings in anticipation of the overseas deployment.

But for those with families, many spouses and children will remain in Brunswick until the end of the school year before relocating to Florida, said James.

Local redevelopment agencies have been planning for the base closure since it was announced in 2005, and those plans now include college facilities and an aircraft refurbishing business.

The growth in jobs at the base may well exceed the number of people employed by the military there -- as it has in other communities that have dealt with base closures -- but that will take years.

"We're trying to get businesses to prepare as much as possible. Have a plan. What happens if business declines by 10 or 15 or 20 percent? What would you do?" said Heather Collins, president of the Southern Midcoast Maine Chamber of Commerce.

Business leaders visited three Northeast communities that had endured base closings to learn from their experience, she said. "The interesting thing all of them said was there was economic development, but things definitely got worse before they got better."

Michael Baribeau's real estate business is coping with a perfect storm of tight credit, a glut of inventory and slumping demand, which will only get worse as the base personnel start to leave.

"That's just going to be adding to that inventory that's going to be on the market, not only the existing housing but the rental inventory," he said. His wife manages 200 rental units and vacancies are climbing. "You're already seeing foreclosure action on multi-unit buildings. ... A lot of houses are being shut down and winterized at this point because they can't sell."

He's had to respond by cutting back on the hours his staff works. Bodwell says the loss of base personnel means he'll be selling fewer minivans to young military families, who are typically strong credit candidates even in the current economy. The dealership sold two to military personnel last week.

"We appreciate every military deal we get right now because you know that's going to go away," he said. "We're just all waiting for some good news."