BINGHAM -- Nycki Bonito likes the individual attention her son receives at School Administrative District 13, but she worries about its future.

Enrollment at SAD 13, which includes Bingham and Moscow, dropped about 10 percent this year, a steep decline in a tiny 254-student system, and one that follows a downtrend going back decades.

SAD 13 Superintendent Kenneth Smith said there are no plans to close any of the district's three schools but residents and parents like Bonito worry that unless young families start moving in, school closures might be inevitable.

Statewide enrollment has been dropping for decades as the population ages. Steeper declines in rural areas underscore another problem: a lack of jobs for families.

"There is nothing here for them anymore. There is nothing to hold them here," said Chris Ingersoll, 26, of Moscow, a graduate of Upper Kennebec Valley Memorial High School in SAD 13.

Ingersoll said he has been all over the country, but he came back to Moscow because he loves the area. He doesn't want schools to close, but he also doesn't see the local economy giving young families a reason to move to the area or giving graduates a reason to stay.

It is a daunting problem, said town officials.

Without young families to seed the schools, enrollments will drop, driving down state subsidies under the Essential Programs and Services formula and potentially causing school closures. Without schools, it will be harder for towns to attract young families, exacerbating the downward economic spiral.

Nor is SAD 13 alone.

In Phillips, School Administrative District 58 saw only a modest decrease in students this year after dropping about four percent the previous year. SAD 58 includes Phillips, Eustis, Avon, Kingfield and Strong.

Superintendent Quenten Clark said he expects to have about 50 students in kindergarten next year, while his graduating class will be in the high 70s.

"If we graduate 70 kids and we are only bringing in 50 kids, that is going to drop a couple of percent right there," said Clark.

It is not just a matter of an aging population, said Clark, who was raised near Millinocket.

"When I graduated from high school, I got home and ... my father said the mill called," said Clark.

"The next day, I went down and put in my application, got the physical and that night I was working."

The Great Northern mill offered blue collar jobs that paid enough to support a family, said Clark, but the manufacturing economy of the 60s and 70s has long since become history.

"We are losing the next generation," he said. "It is all about the economy."

That pressure is felt in School Administrative District 74 as well, said Superintendent Regina Campbell. SAD 74 includes the towns of Solon, Embden, New Portland and Anson.

Between April 1 of this year and the same date last year, enrollment in the small district -- about 820 students -- dropped more than five percent.

Campbell, like Clark, believes the economy is playing a role.

"There are very few employment opportunities and now, coupling that with the price of energy .... I don't see how folks can afford to travel far (for work)," said Campbell.

Nor is this year's drop likely to be the last, said Campbell.

Only 31 students have been signed up for kindergarten so far -- about half the number in recent classes, said Campbell this week.

The prospect of shrinking classes presents the district with difficult choices, she said.

A restructuring committee earlier this year suggested closing two of the district's four schools -- most likely small elementary schools in New Portland and Embden -- but that plan was criticized by parents and eventually rejected by the school board.

"People cherish their town schools," said Campbell, but she said the question of whether to keep small schools open will not go away as long as enrollments continue to drop.

Even when school closure is not on the table, the cuts are difficult.

Rich Abramson, superintendent of Maranacook Area Schools in Readfield, said enrollment in his district has dropped between 100 and 125 students over the past seven years, a decline of a little over 1 percent a year.

Projections for next year, however, call for drops of between 3 and 5 percent at Maranacook schools. Abramson said that decline is a function of demographic trends, not the local economy. The towns that make up his district -- Manchester, Mount Vernon, Wayne and Readfield -- are bedroom communities for Augusta, with many residents working in the health care fields or for the state.

Still, as enrollments drop, so do state subsidies. That means cutbacks in positions and remaining staff will have to work harder.

It has also meant cooperating with nearby school districts to cut costs -- sharing a special education director with Winthrop and Fayette and taking on maintenance of the Winthrop buses.

David Connerty-Marin, spokesman for the department of education, said the projected drop in enrollment in Maine schools is part of the reason the state is pushing to consolidate school districts.

"It is not just rural, although the decline is steeper in rural areas," said Connerty-Marin.

From 197,772 in 2006, statewide enrollment is projected to drop to about 175,000 by 2012, said Connerty-Marin.

"Districts that have maybe 900 students now, could very well have 700 students in a few years," he said.

From a financial viewpoint, smaller schools are less efficient, because they often need more administration per student and students at small schools often don't have the same opportunities as students in larger schools, said Connerty- Marin.

Small schools do have advantages, but the economic and program advantages of consolidation is one reason school districts replace several small schools with larger schools, he said.

For Bingham, however, the debate is as much about the community as it is education.

First Selectman Steven Steward said some people think it simply makes sense to close schools when enrollment drops. Others worry that when their schools close their community will lose part if its identity.

"It is a tough call," said Steward, who stays neutral on the debate.

The manufacturing jobs that once sustained Bingham have disappeared, starting with the closure of the Quimby veneer mill in 1972.

"We have gone from a mill town to a tourist town, which changes the whole dynamics of your economics," said Steward.

Steward said he would love to see 60 families move into town with four kids apiece, but he is not sure what would bring them.

In the end, more than schools are on the line, said Steward.

"You know the old saying, 'It takes a village to raise a kid,' but you have got to have the kids to have a village," said Steward.

Alan Crowell -- 474-9534, Ext. 342

acrowell@centralmaine.com