McCain pollster: “Too close to call”
The McCain campaign shared an internal poll with the media this morning that shows the ticket of Republican Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin is surging in battleground states.
The eight-page memo, from pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, begins with some general statements about the presidential race on Tuesday's ballot.
Here's part of his introduction:
"First, let's be clear: This is a hard election to predict.
The historic nature of the candidates on both tickets, the huge influx of unregulated money by the Obama campaign, the dour public mood, and the unique level of voter interest all suggest an historic level of turnout, not witnessed in over 40 years."
He then says that in battleground states, the race is "functionally tied."
(Maine polls give Sen. Barack Obama a sizable lead.)
Back to the pollster:
"As other public polls begin to show Senator Obama dropping below 50% and the margin over McCain beginning to approach margin of error with a week left, all signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday."
He also addresses turnout:
"Turnout IS going to go through the roof.
Public Opinion Strategies has been using a 1 to 10 scale to help look at self-described interest in the election since 1993. In 1996, in our last track, 48% of voters described their interest in the election as a "10." In 2000, the last track was 54% saying "10." Remarkably, in 2004, our last track had self-described "10s" at 75% of the electorate.
Last night, 81% of voters described their interest in this election as a 10! Wow!
I now believe turnout will begin to approach levels not seen since other comparable presidential campaigns in 1960 and 1968.
In today's terms, that could mean breaking the barrier of 130 million voters!
There is simply no model that begins to know or predict the composition of the electorate at this level of turnout."
So, what do you think?
Will the national presidential race be too close to call on election night?